You have one statement I entirely agree with: "Only the Russian and Ukrainian military know for sure what they are doing and why, closely followed by their respective governments."

Another I see as a realistic conclusion: "essentially nothing changed but the front line that has existed since 2014 in a different place."

That being said, this piece doesn't make any claims to certainty about what is to come. It doesn't necessarily even subscribe to the idea that Russia hoped for a quick victory. The war is months in and the entire lack of progress is what is defined by those "assertations." Those assertations, in turn, are the driving force behind Russia's shift to bombardment and shelling. Yes, these tactics are common in warfare, but had it been Russia's desire to cripple he Ukrainian infrastructure and demoralize the citizenry, they would have done it in conjunction with their massed invasion.

The "Proof" is that Russia has at some level shifted its short-term objectives - whether we know the specifics or not - and in doing have changed their tactics.

If Russia is too prideful to approach Ukraine for negotiations, their tactics somewhat reflect the desire to get Ukraine to approach them first.

As a whole, I do not focus solely on Ukraine either. In fact, I have a piece that is quite conciliatory to Russia and cuts hard against the common black/white media narrative.

I'd enjoy hearing you expand on your opinions on the Russian economy though, as I know what you're getting at but do not necessarily agree.

I like your response. I'd like to hear what else you think!