Quick Take: Why Gray Conflicts Need More Attention
For a few weeks now, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been engaged in a bloody conflict over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
This conflict has a long and storied history, but that’s not the focus of this piece. No, we want to talk about the aspects of this conflict that make it so dangerous and why these aspects can only be remedied with more attention from the international community and world leaders.
Varied Interests
If you’ve read anything about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, you know how many different interests are at play. Russia, Turkey, Iran, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan all have their own interests. As it stands, Russia has a pact with Armenia, Turkey supports the Islamist Azeris and Iran, wanting to stay neutral, is likely to side with the Azeri as well.
The conflict is escalating quickly, and the actors with interests in the region have grown tense. In an effort to come towards peace, Russia mediated a ceasefire that has already been violated. Suspected it was an opportunity to rearm, redeploy, and collect dead and wounded, the ceasefire didn’t brings either party closer to peace, as optimists hoped.
Instead, now, there are rumors of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries fighting for Armenia as well as Pakistani, Syrian, and Taliban jihadists fighting for the Azeri.
This is shocking, but not really anything new. Both sides had their armaments propped up by the respective regional powerhouse backers, but the influence of mercenaries and private factions is what is dangerous for these types of conflicts. Let’s see why.
Anarchy
In the more traditional, hot wars, it was easier to define an enemy, engage him, and then pursue peace depending on the tide of the war. In gray conflicts such as this, we certainly have power brokers and moderators, but the extent to which they actually control and dictate the conflict is minimal.
What does this mean? Look at the ceasefire for example. Ceasefires are consistently broken in gray conflicts. Look at the Vietnam war, or more recently, Syria or Afghanistan.
When we observe conflicts with many individual factions, regardless of alignment, there tends to be a lack of respect for playing by the rules. In fact, rules may be observed simply so they can be taken advantage of.
If Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan negotiate a ceasefire, who is to say every faction is in the loop? Who is to say that every faction even cares? This is the problem with gray conflicts that involve various factions — they are extremely difficult to deescalate because you can never guarantee a diplomatic agreement, let alone a peace process.
We can even see with the given conflict in the Caucasus, that some may even take an outright advantage over ceasefire scenarios. When this happens, the other party is less inclined to do so the next time around. You can see how cyclical such brief instances can be.
More International Attention
It is a broad statement to say that the West has an interest in this conflict to deescalate, but they do. If the conflict grows and say, Russia gets involved, it could be a strain on Western goals in the region, even from lets say, an energy perspective.
The international community needs to find a way to begin mediating this conflict so they can approach peace. What they can actually do, given the near guarantee that there will be no military response, I don’t know. But the US and Europe should have a massive interest in this conflict ending — the Caucasus cannot become the new Syria.
