What was Putin Thinking?
I have a few updates to the Ukraine Crisis, but I also want to briefly address a thought about Vladimir Putin and what exactly the rationale behind this invasion could have been.
I recognize I am no Foreign Policy expert (or fan fiction writer, what’s the difference, really?) but I feel like some of these ideas are questions we will see very soon on mainstream media. Questions lead to insights, so let’s contribute!
First, the updates: Russia still hasn’t taken any major Ukrainian cities, Kyiv is standing strong despite some serious escalations in assaults and bombardments. This is likely to get worse.
Lastly, the EU has banned Russia from using its airspace, and Russia has been removed from SWIFT; the central network for worldwide banking/transactions, as I understand it. This makes it difficult for Moscow to make major sales to other nations (especially gas!).
Now to address my intrigue.
What exactly was Vladimir Putin thinking in launching this invasion? I have a few basic and generalized insights on this:
The US State Department, for example, suggested Putin had poor intelligence on Ukraine and was ill-prepared in equipment, logistics, and training — especially in urban combat operations. I can’t say I disagree.
The philosopher in me wants to address a more intellectual question, however; removed from the rigid talk of strategy and logistical ill-preparedness.
Assuming Kyiv would have been taken by now and de facto Ukraine was “beaten,” what was Putin hoping would happen?
It is evident the Ukrainian people are independent patriots. Surely there would be an armed insurgency in the wake of Russian “victory,” either with Ukrainian weapons or ones later supplied from abroad.
And speaking of “aborad,” the reputation of Russia in the international community (barring the likes of China, Venezuela, and Syria), is irrevocably tarnished; diplomacy is at an all-time low and the Russian economy is in shambles. Even Roblox’s Cryptocurrency is worth more than the Ruble now.
Putin has overreached in so many ways, that he doesn’t even have the support of the Russian population. Thousands have been protesting in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and thousands have been arrested.
If Putin’s power were a solid object, it would seem as of right now that his grip has been tightened so much, out of a panicky grasp for control, that he is turning that object to mush… I don’t know. Maybe I am looking too far ahead and reading into things too deeply.
Either way, what seems to be generally accepted is that Putin has underestimated Ukraine, and overestimated his capabilities. Maybe his age is taking its toll, or maybe the man who has been revered as an unreadable and unknowable schemer is not as he always appeared to be…
Follow me on Twitter @thecmeasure for more updates on the Ukraine Crisis and general politics.
