What is next for Iran?
On May 19, 2024, a helicopter crash in Iran’s northwestern mountains killed Ebrahim Raisi (President), Hossein Amirabdollahian (Foreign Minister), and seven others. But what is next for Iran? No one is certain.
Some quick facts:
- The group of diplomats had visited neighboring Azerbaijan for a ceremony to christen a new dam on their border.
- The group lost contact over mountains in Iran’s northwest near the Azerbaijani border during their helicopter flight.
- The crash is likely to have occurred due to weather and poor flight conditions. Photographs on social media showed severe fog.
- Israel immediately claimed no involvement in the incident.
- The United States confirmed there was “no foul play”.
- Mohammad Mokhber (former VP) is now acting President.
- Ali Bagheri Kani, a top diplomat, has been appointed Foreign Minister
What happens now?
The death of these figures comes at a tense and uncertain time for the region. Israel’s war with Hamas (a known Iranian proxy) rages on, as do Iranian drone and missile strikes on Western targets in the region.
Global leaders have issued statements in response to the incident. Of note are Turkish President Erdogan and China’s Xi Jingping, who likened their relationships with Raisi as friends. Of note is Turkey’s status as a NATO member.
Many have begun to speculate that there might be foul play after all. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is old. Many speculated that Raisi was positioned to take his place. The Supreme Leader’s position is an unelected one, which is key to understanding the complexity of Iranian politics.
A screenshot from Caspian Report’s video should provide a solid visual of their political structure:
In a report on Yahoo Finance, Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka made some interesting statements:
- Iranian policies at home and abroad were solely decided by the Supreme Leader and supported by the Revolutionary Guard.
- Iranian policy at home and abroad will not change immediately (proxy war with Israel to continue).
- We should look for evidence of foul play from within Iran.
- Iran could face political infighting.
The fear of political infighting is the potential rise of more radical and tyrannical rulers within Iran. Iranian politics and policy are, at this point, definitive. Intelligence on Iranian operations abroad is well known, and the US and our allies have known what to expect from Iran for some time. The continued funding and support to terror groups, such as Hamas and the Houthis, will continue.
The fear of a new political power in Iran is that we will not be sure of their actions or intentions. Could this contest result in escalations in violence in the region? That is also uncertain.
Another consideration is domestic stability. While Riasi was a democratically elected official, that election was rigged. Many Iranian people reportedly celebrated the President’s death, and are hoping for the end to the current political structure and the men who run it. This also begs the question; could certain results of infighting lead to riots and protests in Iran?
What do you think?
