Preparing for war in the Pacific
On December 16, Japan announced that the nation plans to double its military spending over the next five years, citing fears of the increasingly threatening CCP and North Korean government.
The news comes as a major shock in the foreign affairs world, as Japan adopted a strictly defensive military stance after its defeat in World War II. Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, specifically, stated that Japan would seek policy through peace and law and order, and that the Japanese military would not maintain a composition capable of waging war. In this regard, the military of Japan is strictly a defense force.
The recent announcement potentially changes all that. An article by the BBC specifically states that Japan is focusing on redeveloping its cyberwarfare capabilities, as well as developing a long-range missile arsenal capable of striking strategic targets — such as bases or other missile sites — far from the mainland.
Prime Minister Kishida sated that by 2027 — the end of the 5 year period in which experts believe China could attack Taiwan — Japan will have 2% of its total GDP allotted for defense spending. Kishida stated that the budget is somewhere around $314 billion. It would make Japan one of the world’s biggest spenders when it comes to defense.
The news is particularly good for the US and its allies, and is resented by the CCP who have already decried the announcement. For Japan though, there is good cause for such a drastic push in defense development.
The primary concern is the Chinese Communist Party. From the view of the Japanese and their allies, China stands as a major destabilizer in the region because they have not abandoned their desire to seize Taiwan. Specifically, the Chinese have not ruled out the use of force; a situation that if the US responded in Taiwan’s defense would likely bring Japan into the conflict.
Additionally, Japan has been a perpetual victim to North Korea’s missile antics. This past October, North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew over Japan and into the Pacific. It has happened before, but not in more than five years.
Lastly, Japan views Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an action that has “shaken the foundations of the international order.” Japan, like many other states who have denounced Russia’s actions, worry that such a decision has emboldened other adversaries, such as China or North Korea. In this regard, Japan’s decision to ramp up defense spending is a desperate wake up call, and a sigh of relief for the US.
While it is major news — and good news at that — it leaves a lot of questions. Questions I would like to pursue further, and with more context as it pertains to America’s posture in the Pacific.
Does this decision drastically change the situation in the Pacific? Will the announcement cause a scramble in Beijing? Will the CCP move quicker on its decision regarding Taiwan? Is this decision, slated for 2027, too late? Is it enough to counter China? Will this decision cause other countries in the region to make similar stances against China?
What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
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