Ukraine is bolstering its air defense

But does it matter? Some considerations:

On January 18, 2023, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine now has three operational PATRIOT batteries to improve Ukraine’s air defense capability over friendly controlled airspace. Zelenskyy also committed to further developing Ukraine’s air defense structure with more PATRIOT missiles and similar systems.

PATRIOT is certainly a great improvement to an air defense structure, as its missiles can engage enemy aircraft as well as missiles before they reach their intended target. By having this capability, it means Ukraine can either destroy air targets or at the very least deter them from being used.

It is one weapon system, when integrated at capacity, can be a major strategic buff for a military — especially against an army that has a more traditional, 20th century composition such as Russia’s.

That being said, there is a point of discretion to Ukraine’s new-found hope in PATRIOT; and it is the same concern the US has for its air defense in the Pacific in regards to China.

At any given moment, depending on the missile loadout being used by PATRIOT, the systems capability is only so relevant. What I mean by this is in strict regards to the amount of missiles in a cannister — and loaded — at any given time.

For example, the PAC-2’s hold one missile per cannister with 4 total being placed on one launcher. If a battery has 8 launchers then at any given time it has 32 missiles ready for use. Don’t get me wrong, it is an excellent capability and a strong deterrent at the very least, but this exact scenario has created a dilemma in the air defense field for years.

Looking at China, their military structure has heavily invested in the R&D and production of surface-to-surface missiles specifically for targeting air defense batteries such as PATRIOT. Why? Because they are cheaper to produce and, at cost, can achieve greater strategic objectives. It looks something like this, in theory:

Enemy intelligence identifies a PATRIOT battery to have 32 missiles available for conducting air defense in a given area. The weapon and targeting solution then is to utilize, let’s say, 34 surface-to-surface missiles. An oversimplification, this scenario depicts the strategic nightmare that is air defense; you can’t defend everything, and you can’t defend it all the time.

So while newer, more capable air defense systems are an advantage for Ukraine, the capabilities only go as far as the limitations allow. Supplying missiles to the batteries will be a challenge in and of of itself, as the US is also posturing to build its air defenses elsewhere.

What do you think? Could Ukraine build a defense system robust enough to “freeze” the war with Russia? Could Russia be supplied enough antiradiation missiles (either by domestic manufacturing or foreign sale) to nullify systems like PATRIOT? Let me know in the comments.