Ukraine gives us a glimpse of the future of warfare
Social media, crowd funding, unmanned and advanced weapons systems, redundancy to the old… The war in Ukraine is showing us just how fascinating, frightening, and rapidly warfare is changing.
In September, the Russian Defense Ministry released images of a mysterious naval vessel that washed up on the shores of Russian-occupied Crimea. The catch? The vessel is unmanned.
The news quicky went viral and people started to investigate. Forbes linked it to an $800 million project funded by the US that provided — vaguely — such vessels. Some say it was produced in Canada.
One thing is certain, the drone was used effectively to observe the Russian Black Sea fleet because on October 29, something else happened:
Videos of a “Ukrainian kamikaze drone boat” ramming into a Russian naval vessel near Sevastopol surfaced. See the tweets below.
It is, as I tweeted, a fascinating and totally logical development in military technology. Drones have been used to great effect in Ukraine lately, by both sides, and have been a niche talking point for those who follow the conflict or are in military circles.
Iran and Turkey are involved in the production sale of drones, as is China. We have seen commercial drones being used by both sides for reconnaissance and for makeshift tactics like dropping primed mortar rounds on targets below.
So yeah, the development of nautical drones seems logical. So logical in fact, that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy made an intriguing announcement regarding the matter. One that is, in my opinion, an interesting look into the nature of warfare in the future.
What Zelenskyy did, on November 6, is make an announcement that Ukraine would immediately start a fundraising campaign in order to procure a “fleet of sea drones” intended to challenge Russian naval might in the Black Sea.
This announcement as a whole is fascinating to me. Sure, the drone technology and application is amazing in itself. But let’s looks at the other considerations as well:
- Social Media
As a world leader, it is a powerful thing to be able to make a statement and then watch as social platforms run with it. In doing this, world leaders, government agencies, interest groups, protestors, or even individuals can immediately craft a narrative.
Narrative building has been one of the most effective weapons in the “soft power” arsenal of Ukraine; playing in to a (easy and justified) anti-Russian narrative has gained Ukraine unanimous international support. This has ultimately led to billions of dollars of aid — both military and humanitarian in nature — being sent to Ukraine.
The ability to get out a message on social media has been apparent for years now. How responsible it is for the support Ukraine has gained, we cannot truly know. That being said, it is in conjunction with my next point that makes it even more pertinent.
2. Direct Crowd Funding
The notion that a government could, quite easily, begin an international crowd funding campaign to fund the production or procurement of weapons is incredible.
While foreign investment isn’t new, crowd funding seems like a whole new ball game. I can view the announcement on Twitter, and then do my own digging to find where to donate. And I, as well as hundreds if not thousands of similarly inclined people, can make a collective difference in the armament of a foreign power. This is in part due to the fact that it is no longer necessary for countries — with the right allies — to have domestic means of producing cutting edge weapons systems; if they can field a basic army, someone can field the rest.
Donations by the common man — worldwide — simply supplement that reality (i.e. Ukraine theoretically isn’t solely dependent on American/NATO donations). Spooky.
While the whole Ukrainian war effort is essentially built off of donations (by governments), I think you understand my amazement at this.
3. Drone Efficiency
The development of nautical drones for military roles in reconnaissance and sabotage is evolving. It is clear that drone technology is getting better just as their roles for employment are widening. Creativity by users only seem to maximize their effectiveness.
Cost, however, is where the real advantage lies.
Let’s look at another example of how a weapon system’s cost is a major strategic consideration; SAMs v. Aircraft. Capable, modern aircraft are extremely expensive. Only world powers really have the cutting edge variants in 5th generation aircraft, and they cost millions per unit (look at the F35 or F22 for example).
In order to counter that, Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs) have become the cornerstone of modern militaries who cannot match the weapons systems of the US. The best example of this, at scale, is the Russian S-300 system. The concept is simple; one cheaper and capable missile can destroy a much more expensive and strategically valuable aircraft.
Zelenskyy’s statement and intent to develop a nautical drone fleet is a reflection of this.
So what do my scrambled thoughts mean for the future of warfare then? What exactly does Zelenskyy’s statement reveal?
A facet of future warfare seems to be something like this; the potential for a global audience to financially supplement a military and thereby procure cheaper, unmanned, capable weapons systems that, at cost, allow for competition against expensive legacy weapon platforms.
How weapons and tactics that essentially mimic the 20th century can triumph on the modern battlefield, I do not know. Russia certainly has it’s hands full…
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