Two Breakaway Regions Could Mean War in Ukraine
Just this afternoon, shortly before the news spread on Twitter that Putin would soon address Russia, the Kremlin announced that it would officially recognize the separatist enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Back when the Ukraine Crisis really started, the focus was mostly on Crimea and Russia’s seizure of the Black Sea peninsula by “little green men.” What garnered lesser attention was the eventual protracted war that erupted in Ukraine’s east, specifically in these breakaway regions.
Donetsk and Luhansk have been the epicenter of combat in the Ukraine Crisis, as pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian fighters have been vying for control since the crisis erupted.
Now, the breakaway regions are gaining legitimacy in Russian eyes, as the Kremlin will officially recognize their independence from Ukraine.
In my opinion, this is the partial genius of Russia’s Passport Diplomacy they have administered. Some 700,000 Russian passports were created and distributed to ethnic Russians in these regions; many to people who view themselves as Russians and therefore seek Russian governance and control of their homeland.
This is a political act that, to many, may seem insignificant (After all, most people probably recognize Donetsk via the Champions League). But, by recognizing these areas as independent (and let’s be honest, as ethnically Russian), Putin has fabricated a casus belli for war on Ukrainian soil.
Russia’s foreign policy, historically, has revolved around protecting ethnic Russians and Orthodox Christians in its near abroad, and with NATO interest in intervention at a bare minimum, an escalation to the crisis in Ukraine is as real as ever.
Prediction: Should Russian troops step foot on Ukrainian soil, it will first be in these regions and will be in the name of protecting Russian people and Russian lands. As for a NATO response, I also wager we will see more disjointed diplomacy and lack of commitment; more calls for talks until the shock aspect of the crisis simply dissipates — as it did the first time.
