The powder keg in the Pacific

For those who follow foreign policy news and updates, the Pacific region has been a major focus for headlines in the past few weeks. Let’s take a look at some of those major updates:

Japan

Last week, Japan recently announced plans to double its defense spending over the course of a five year period in order to properly defend itself from — and deter — the increasingly hostile North Korean and Chinese governments.

Japan has named named China and North Korea — as well as Russia — as the world’s greatest threats to peace and stability. Since China and North Korea pose more imminent and realistic threats to Japan, the Japanese government is reinvesting in its defense forces, specifically as it pertains to missile strike capability, air and missile defense, and the cyber domain.

Japan’s recent announcement — which has been an incredible development for the US and our allies — has unnerved China and North Korea, and therefore serves as a good segue.

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China

Earlier this week, Chinese exercises saw 71 military aircraft and 7 naval vessels enter Taiwanese airspace and waters. All this happened within 24 hours.

It is the greatest military demonstration — and incursion into Taiwanese territory — since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan earlier this year in which the Chinese military also had a large show-of-force response.

China’s incursion, again, comes after Japan’s announcement to redesign and recommit to its defense capabilities. China stated that Japan’s decision “provokes regional tension and confrontation” and that the CCP is “strongly dissatisfied” with the policy.

It should be noted that China has increasingly ramped up its military spending and development as well, has increased the amount of incursions against Taiwan, and earlier this year at the CCP Congress recommitted itself to taking Taiwan by force.

Japan, on the other hand, has maintained a foreign policy focused on the rule of law and diplomacy in pursuit of perpetual peace since its restructuring of its Constitution by the US in 1946.

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Taiwan

As mentioned before, Taiwan has suffered some serious Chinese incursions in its territory multiple times this year. Two of which were alarming in scale. It should also be mentioned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — despite its blunders — have some pundits and observers speculating that the war has emboldened leaders like Xi.

It is a combination of this fear and recent incursions that have led Taiwan to extend its conscription service. Citing the obvious threat from China, Taiwan is shifting its conscription obligation to one year instead of the previous four months.

Additionally, the training for Taiwanese personnel is going to include more tactical instruction from US personnel as well as the operating processes for weapons like MANPADs (i.e. Stinger missiles).

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North Korea

Last is North Korea who is currently hosting their annual Workers’ Party meeting. The event is essentially the same as China’s CCP Congress, and is heavily centered on the cult of personality surrounding Kim Jong-Un. It is remarkably Soviet-esque in scope and scale.

At the meeting, which has been broadcast by North Korean media/propagandists, Kim Jung-Un voiced North Koreas intention to, like Japan, reinforce its military capability in defense (a likely story) against, essentially, the US, South Korea, and Japan.

There were no specific details revealed about what the military build-up could look like, but media outlets are speculating that it could align with North Korea’s recent trends and antics from this past year. Specifically, the continued development and irresponsible testing of ICBMs.

Again, recent missile tests that flew directly over Japan were a cause for the Japanese decision to increase defense spending, particularly on missile defense and strike capabilities.

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Opinion

The situation in the Pacific is particularly alarming, especially given America’s laser-focus on Russia and Ukraine. While Russia and Ukraine is a complex and worrying conflict, the situation in the Pacific deserves more attention. I have some broad opinions I’ll present in individual statements:

1. China and North Korea’s shared rhetoric of ‘aggression-to-preserve-our-nation’ is characteristic of each of their governments’ cult of personality legacies
2. China and North Korea’s rhetoric, which is typical of tyrannical regimes, is grossly hypocritical
3. Threats by tyrannical regimes should be taken — and prepared for — at their face value AND rhetoric of unity and joint prosperity should be received with speculation
4. Japan’s decision to double its defense spending is a historically underrated and underappreciated strategic development that allows the US to both a.) jointly deter China and b.) reallocate resources to reposition itself in the Pacific
5. Perhaps more important, but certainly equal, is that Japan’s decision is one of American Liberalism’s greatest reassurances and buy-ins since the Cold War. In other words, Japan is reaffirming that yes, people do want the guarantees, lifestyles, and security that American concepts, government, and ideas have provided the world
6. Pariah states, like North Korea, need to be dealt with proactively, and not on the verge of crisis (this is a perspective in historical hindsight)

What do you think? Let me know in the comments! Also, please subscribe to The Countermeasure below!