The Kazakhstan Riots are a reminder to take Russia seriously
If you haven’t been keeping a keen eye on foreign affairs and world news, you probably didn’t know that Kazakhstan is in the midst of some serious anti-government riots (look).
While I don’t want to detract from the riots or the reasons for their inception, the bigger picture relates to how the world has reacted to them — and more specifically — how Russia has. With Russia involved, it becomes more certain that the protestors' goal of a new government may not come to fruition.
Sidenote: I want to preface this by pointing out that unfortunately, the situation in Kazakhstan probably won’t be major news for the average Westerner; if you asked an average American, for example, if Kazakhstan were real, they may say “Yes!” If you followed up by asking them how they are so certain, they’d probably have Sacha Baron Cohen to thank — Very Nice.
To the point; what the events in Kazakhstan really show are the legitimacy of Russia as a superpower, and specifically, that it is run by a keen and clever Vladimir Putin many have suspected of being of poor health or at the tail end of his political career.
What we have seen, at the request of Kazakh President Tokayev, is committed intervention by CSTO member states to suppress the “foreign aggression” with peacekeepers. The CSTO is the Russian-led equivalent of NATO and boasts a membership of six former Soviet states. It’s no NATO, but it’s also the real deal.
It may seem outlandish to posit that an act such as this — to commit peacekeepers to Kazakhstan — is a major powerplay for Putin and Russia, but when you consider it in lieu of Russian foreign policy in the last 10 years, and Russian domestic politics in this past year alone, Putin’s Russia seems more secure of its place, its ambitions, and its future than all but a handful of nations (U.S., China?).
What other“successes” (from the Russian perspective) does this compliment you may ask? Well, Putin has made some fascinating contributions to world events in recent years, so let’s look at some of his actions that have benefitted him or Russia:
- A sneaky, uncontested annexation of Crimea, now known as the Ukraine Crisis
- A clever passport diplomacy policy
- An unmatched cyberwarfare program
- A successful intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh; OSCE helped, but Russia made diplomatic strides and has a military occupation of the region
- Perpetuated the Assad regime in Syria, sidelining US efforts in the region
- Exporting a global presence of mercenaries via the Wagner Group
- Kept NordStream2 alive
- Established military cohesion with China
- Domestic suppression of political opposition
- Political and cultural subversion in the West
Truly, the decision to intervene in Kazakhstan and protect a regime favorable to Putin is a strong start to 2022. Russia’s control, especially in its “Near Abroad,” is virtually unmatched. I would even wager that no nation, in the last 10 years, has defined its goals so clearly to itself and seen such progress as Russia.
Even at this writing, Russia is unpunished for sponsored cyberattacks, is manufacturing a migrant crisis via Belarus, is uncontested in a massive military buildup on Ukraine’s border, and is seeing its NordStream pipeline advance.
The Russian Modus Operandi — Disrupt, legitimize, expand (perhaps restore, in the Russian view?), repeat.
What we can clearly take away is a certainty that Russia, at least under Putin’s control, is looking to restore its Empire (or Union), and what we are seeing in Kazakhstan is proof. Russian foreign policy has been romanticized for so long because pundits like to apply an essence of cultural and historical mystique when discussing Russia, but the goal is quite obvious.
We shouldn’t be surprised at Russia’s response, just aware that they run that neighborhood. And that’s what Putin wants the world to know.
The intervention in Kazakhstan seems minor, but the cooperation by the CSTO to send peacekeepers shows Russia has some serious patrons should it ever find the might to create its own attempt at a regional — or world — order. After all, for places like Central Asia or the Caucasus — neglected as afterthoughts by the West — they have to look for leadership somewhere.
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If you agree, disagree, or just want to discuss, find me on Twitter @thecmeasure!
