The Global Order Continues to Tilt
As America is anguishing over 2022 elections, playing at social politics, and suffering a continued economic crisis, her adversaries are plotting their next moves — and perhaps in greater unison than we’d care to admit.
Today, President Putin — amidst a failing war in Ukraine and diplomatic and economic turmoil in Russia because of it — has made very deliberate claims about their strategic ally China.
China just had its 20th CCP Congress, so these statements could be to help legitimize Xi’s continued ascension. But, Putin went so far as to say that relations with China and Russia are at “unprecedented levels” and that Xi is a “close friend” to Putin. Even today, Vladimir Putin stated Taiwan is a part of China.
These statements hold some serious weight behind them because first and foremost, it is a stance of unity between the two powers. Russia is backing China’s next five years of Xi, and with the statements not being ill-received by the CCP, China is by extension endorsing Russia’s recent endeavors.
It should also be noted that yesterday (October 26), reports that China is “closer than ever” to reunification with Taiwan emerged. Pundits seem to think that within the two weeks China could make strides — either via military action or diplomatic “attacks” — in seizing Taiwan.
This is unlikely.
While the rhetoric by the CCP is perpetually consistent, we simply haven’t seen any indications of imminent military action. Russia’s war with Ukraine is a good example of this; a prior proxy war in 2014 was a solid basis, but the troop buildup nearly 9 months ago was a dead giveaway. We simply aren’t seeing this with the PLA right now.
That being said, we should be wary of diplomatic efforts to undermine Taiwan. This means things similar to the “one country, two systems” promise the CCP used with Hong Kong or a different “social system” according to Ma Xiaoguang, a CCP official.
My advice for the Taiwanese people: Don’t trust such promises.
My advice for Americans: Focus on real issues. The next decade could be the most competitive and tumultuous we have ever seen. Recession, war in Europe, and the seizure of Taiwan are all perpetual realities with our current trends.
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