The China We Can Expect
The CCP’s 20th Party Congress showed us that the China we have known under Xi is here to stay, but maybe with more focus and vigor on goals the West perceives as catastrophic.
On October 16, 2022, more than 2,000 Chinese Communist Party delegates attended the 20th Party Congress to witness President Xi Jinping give a speech about the CCP’s policy, progress, and future.
One thing is certain from the speech, and that is that Communist China is going to continue to maintain policies and practices that ultimately seek to subvert American hegemony and those states, institutions, orders, or ideals that support it.
Specifically, Xi mentioned the importance of continuing to fight COVID because the CCP “put people and lives” on a pedestal…
It should also be noted that China has had little success in beating COVID, and that their measures extend to controlling the physical movement of citizens, mass surveillance (especially digital), and enforced lockdowns.
Here’s an example of the lunacy:
I like to mention this because while COVID does remain a crisis for the CCP, I think it has been used to extend the lengths to which CCP officials are allowed to tyrannically control the Chinese people.
Domestically, especially regarding civil liberties, China will remain the same indefinitely. Oppressive, paranoid, subversive.
As for more broad strategy and development of the nation, there is more uncertainty. Many are expecting Xi to remain in power for a third five-year term.
What is somewhat ominous to non-CCP members is the assertation by Xi that the next five years will be focused on the “rejuvenation” of the nation.
Certainly, China will continue to focus on its economic development. China has not met its economic goals. Simple as that. COVID fallout, a collapsing real estate development sector, and the CCP seizing the money of private citizens for investment — just to name a few — were all signs of a China that is economically weaker than the world thought.
Xi’s goal, which so far has not happened, is to reach economic growth of 5.5%. COVID caused a major hit to China’s GDP which had a slowing growth rate to begin with.
Xi seems optimistic that China can continue to develop an advanced economy, stating that the next five years — which will likely coincide with his reign — are crucial.
One thing is certain, economically, China will continue to see some growth since foreign investment is still going strong and the Chinese people do not remain the beneficiaries of profit and growth. Foreign investment, focus on manufacturing, supply chain dominance, expand into tech market.
As for foreign policy, the true interest of observers, it appears to be in acceleration. What do I mean by this? Specifically, I mean Taiwan.
Taiwan still remains the number one existential outlier for the CCP because the government in Taiwan is the only rightful claimant to the sovereignty of China. It also happens, that yes, the eastern coast of Taiwan massively increases China’s naval capabilities.
(Taiwanese ports would allow undetected traffic of Chinese submarines in the Pacific, as well as secure the first island chain).
So, militarily, in the next five years, we could potentially see more large-scale and sophisticated Chinese operations. I would also wager we will see a higher output and development of advanced weapons systems and platforms, especially as it pertains to aircraft, naval vessels, and air defense and missile systems.
Worst of all, we could actually see the invasion of Taiwan.
While this has been quite a basic synopsis, I don’t think it misses the mark. Five more years under Xi’s leadership would certainly imply continued progress toward their legacy goals. After all, they have been relentlessly pursuing such goals since Mao’s reign.
Put another way, while it is an interesting question to speculate the trajectory and decision-making of dictators, it is entirely more relevant to investigate the rate, cost, and determination in which they achieve them.
President Xi and the CCP know their goals, and they are unified in achieving them; controlling COVID (and the citizens), unseating American/Western dominance, and securing the suzerainship of Taiwan are its hardlined goals. All else are means to those ends.
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