Russia wants a ceasefire in Ukraine
On May 24, 2024, Reuters reported that five senior officials in the Kremlin revealed Putin’s desire to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine.
This is not a new development from Moscow, however. Observers might recall that back in April, Dmitry Peskov (the Kremlin’s senior spokesman) stated that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could resume.
The caveat was that the April 2022 meetings, which took place in Istanbul, should serve as the foundation for a peace deal in 2024. Reuters stated that an agreement was near, but once Russian troops retreated from the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials walked away from the deal.
And now, Russia seem to be following through on that desire. According to the senior Kremlin officials interviewed by Reuters, Russia is still capable of fighting — and winning — a protracted conflict but desires peace.
Putin is allegedly keen on reaching a ceasefire agreement, but with specific terms. For example, Russia would accept a ceasefire so long as current battlefield lines would be recognized.
If we look at Russia’s current disposition, we can see the significant losses of territory Ukraine would be agreeing to:
The above graphic gives a good “big picture” view of Russia’s position in Ukraine. Before the February 2022 invasion, Russia formally controlled Crimea after their “Little Green Men” seized the peninsula in 2014.
Observers might recall that the US (then led by President Obama) and its Western allies did virtually nothing in response to this seizure.
After significant gains, then a sudden retreat, Russia and Ukraine now fight a frozen conflict. But Russia, as the bottom-right graphic indicates, controls much of Ukraine’s east.
A ceasefire would, in effect, require the Ukrainian government to formally cede those territories to Russia. What could come of that, no one is certain. But Russia could very well honor that deal and begin a period of nation-building/integration within those oblasts, effectively merging them into Russia (linguistically, culturally, economically, and politically) over time.
After that (however long it might take) Russia could begin its war anew, with fresh troops, better logistics, and a stronger disposition.
Whether Ukraine would accept a ceasefire is also uncertain. Support given to Ukraine might indicate that they are committed to the fight long-term. Alone, the US has given more than $175 billion to Ukraine for their war efforts. For comparison, Russia’s defense spending before the invasion was $86 billion, and that spending increased for now obvious reasons.