Russia is the winner in Kazakhstan
The situation in Kazakhstan that was of brief interest to the world has reached a pretty typical denouement. We’ve seen a lot happen in a short time; CSTO peacekeepers led by Russia entered the country, brutally put down protestors, and arrested thousands. Dozens were killed on both sides and the CSTO has committed more troops to the scene. Russia for example has more than 3,000 troops in-country.
It has been said that CSTO (mainly Russian) peacekeeping forces will remain in Kazakhstan “until the situation is completely stabilized.” On the other side of the coin, Tokayev’s press secretary stated that they believe CSTO forces will be staying for a mere week. These are quite interesting updates for a situation in which peacekeepers were authorized to kill “foreign trained terrorists” almost indiscriminately.
This update is also quite perplexing because of the nature of CSTO peacekeepers in the country. It is extremely violent. It is also dependent on rioting and protest. Should they leave, protests could start again at any moment. And the protestors, knowing how their new “leader” is willing to act (i.e. sending foreign enforcers to kill them), may simply double down and escalate protests into outright revolution.
All this begs the question: Will Russia stay?
My guess: Yes.
The chatter online already suggests that Putin has secured his interests in Kazakhstan. Much like Lukashenka in Belarus, Putin has Tokayev on his leash.
It is true that to the average Westerner, Kazakhstan is a far-off land of little importance (even if they know it exists). Even so, Kazakhstan is hardly the center of US Foreign Policy. Another question to be begged then: What is so important about Kazakhstan?
The simple version: It is a major energy exporter and a solid foothold in Central Asia. It is the largest and wealthiest nation in the region and is essentially Russia’s foothold there. But is it more than just a foothold. There is a lot of potential to be had by being in, in Kazakhstan. For example, Russia can always prop up its energy exports there, it can use it as the crossroads to a stronger military and economic integration with China. Hell, they could even take up “Great Game” ambitions of old and approach new ambitions in the Indian subcontinent.
Clearly, the Kazakh people were disheartened with their government and wanted change, but Putin sought to keep his man — now solely loyal to Russia and dependent on the power their Force brings — in power. Nazarbayev is out and Tokayev is holding the reigns (even if he is sitting on Putin’s lap while he steers). What is certain is that the Kazakh people have suffered a major loss, both on the political front and in regards to human rights violations.
For a people who have protested the (essentially) same regime several times in recent years, this is a major, yet unsurprising, setback.
