Russia is preparing a second offensive
On December 8, NATO’s Secretary General Stoltenberg suggested that Russia is attempting to set conditions for a “bigger offensive next spring.”
Stoltenberg’s statements, coming from an interview, reveal NATO’s most obvious assessment of what is to come next in the War in Ukraine. The war, on its tenth month, has experienced a peculiar lull. Russian troops have withdrawn from some territory they captured earlier int he war — most notably Kherson — and have opted to strike key points of infrastructure with missile and artillery strikes instead. These tactics are in line with the Stoltenberg’s assessment.
Stoltenberg states in the interview that Russia, out of a type of desperation because of their failed offensive, is looking to “have some kind of ‘freeze’ of this war at least for a short period of time [to] they can regroup, repair, and recover.” Stoltenberg then goes on to suggest that this freeze would give the Russian military ample time to prepare for a second, bigger offensive for Spring 2023.
Stoltenberg also praised the alliances ability to predict the initial invasion — which allowed time to provide support Ukraine and enact a NATO defense plan. Stoltenberg highlighted NATO’s ability to provide key military support, such as armored vehicles and air defense systems. This is an important part of Stoltenberg’s statement because it indicates two things:
- NATO will continue to provide weapon systems to Ukraine in preparation for a prolonged conflict, and,
- Russia, if it is preparing for a Spring 2023 offensive, will need to conduct operations around destroying or nullifying the effects of these systems.
Russia struggled early in its February invasion because the armed forces were unable to create a reliable logistics structure and came nowhere close to establishing air superiority. It is because of these factors, which greatly reduced Russia’s ability to wage total war, it has suffered roadblocks.
Additionally, those factors seem to be what Russia itself is assessing as its downfall. On December 9, Putin apparently talked about using the American concept of preemptive military strikes in the future, noting that such a change in tactics would enhance Russia’s ability to neutralize Ukrainian command facilities; facilities that are integral to the usage of air defense and artillery systems. Systems which have been the saving grace of Ukraine’s defense.
It should be noted that this also comes at a time when Russia has suffered two drone strikes within its own territory, one of which struck a strategic airfield that houses Russian strategic bombers. You can read more about that below.
Putin has teased the use of advanced cruise missiles as well, and the US recently stated that Iran is now Russia’s largest military supporter. This also feeds into the presumption that a second offensive is coming, as Iran is a strong procurer of ‘suicide drones,’ drones used to perform strikes on strategic targets, such as command and control agencies or critical infrastructure; both in line with Russia’s current tactics, and Putin’s cryptic message on how Russia will move forward.
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