Russia is failing beyond Ukraine
Most news stories about Russia are focusing on Vladimir Putin himself, or Russia’s failing war in Ukraine. Very few articles talk about that Russia is failing in a broader sense, not just with Ukraine.
From September to November 2020, you may have remembered seeing articles or videos on an obscure place called Nagorno-Karabakh. It was in September 2020 that Armenian and Azerbaijani forces clashed in that location; a region that both nations have been fighting over since the dissolution of the USSR.
That brief conflict (which has happened before and will likely happened again) ended in an Azeri victory. Russia played an integral role in negotiating the peace between the Azeri and Armenian governments, and part of that settlement included the deployment of Russian “peacekeepers” to Nagorno-Karabakh.
The reason this is important is because since then, various violations of the ceasefire have occurred. And, on November 23, the Russian-led CSTO held a conference in Yerevan.
What you should know about the CSTO is that it is essentially a NATO copy, providing security guarantees for the six members. Specifically, that an attack against one is an attack against all.
What Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, said at the conference in Yerevan is a direct attack at the organization’s capability and relevancy. He said that the CSTO “failed to contain Azerbaijani aggression.” Pashinian also noted that such a failure was damaging to the organizations reputation abroad.
Pashinian is right, and the logical conclusion is whether or not such an organization can survive. A day before the conference, on November 22, Armenian protestors even took to the street to demand Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO.
Now, Armenia’s rhetoric and actions by its protestors are only a small incident in comparison to the CSTO members’ power, potential, and unity. That being said, Armenia does bring up a larger concern for the Caucasus, a region Russia fancies itself the leader of.
Georgia, a longtime adversary and victim of Russian aggression recently applied for EU membership as a result of the war in Ukraine. It is also no surprise that while Azerbaijan is willing to hear Russia out, they are not necessarily close allies. So as for the Caucasus, Russia may have unintentionally lost its grip there.
It could also be speculated that Putin may not have as tight a grip on the CSTO as a whole either. A video surfaced online of Armenia’s Pashinian refusing to sign a document and then abruptly adjouring a meeting between the CSTO members. Both Putin and Belarus’ Lukashenko — a major puppet to Russia and a Putin loyalist — both sit in disbelief.
Perhaps it is fair to say that behind the scenes, Russia is, metaphorically, sailing through some seriously rough waters:
- Failing war in Ukraine
- Crippled economy
- Diplomatically isolated
- Losing grip on CSTO member obedience
- Rampant Russophobia abroad
By no means a comprehensive list, Russia seems to have miscalculated with recent policy.
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