Russia is crafting a winning narrative
With news of an impending counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in the East, Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are preparing a narrative to mitigate the humiliation of their disastrous war.
During the Crimean War, when Russian forces lost Sevastopol in Crimea, Tsar Alexander II made a powerful statement. One that may have been an incredible rallying cry to all Russia, it was still futile. He said:
“Sevastopol is not Moscow. The Crimea is not Russia. Two years after the burning of Moscow [in 1812], our victorious troops were in Paris. We are still the same Russians and God is with us.”
And now, Vladimir Putin, the man Western media has painted as a pseudo-Tsar, is potentially preparing to make similar public sentiments to his people as Russia prepares for the possibility of losing their war. The ironic tinge being that Putin early on tried rewriting history, claiming Crimea and Ukraine are Russia; all despite what his Tsarist forebearers insinuated. Coming full circle with history, but perhaps a different flavor, Putin now stands at a crossroads where the Kremlin may have to abandon their ambitions in Ukraine — for a time — to reevaluate.
The details…
Last week, news outlets began reporting that Putin and his Kremlin staff are secretly preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive and — perhaps more importantly — how Russia can manipulate the narrative to convince Russians they didn’t lose the war outright.
It is surprising news; trying to fathom that Vladimir Putin’s Russia — a force that made many foreign policy gains since Putin rose to power — is now crafting a propaganda narrative to convince Russians that the conflict in Ukraine was not a failure.
Apparently, a propaganda manual was leaked from the Kremlin that reveals the plans to address the Russian populace. The narrative, which the Kremlin is crafting and prescribing, allegedly follows a strict order.
First, Russians will be advised not to underestimate their Ukrainian counterparts. Not because they are tactically or technically superior, but because they had been preparing their operations for an indeterminately long time.
Goal: Convince Russians that Ukraine has plotted to do harm against Russia for awhile, and long before Russia invaded.
Second, in preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia had two plays. In the event they lose, the Kremlin will craft a narrative that the Russian military is not fighting Ukraine alone, that they are defending against the entirety of NATO and “the West.” Alternatively, should Russia repel he expected counteroffensive, it presents an opportunity to prop up the morale of Russia’s fighting forces by implying Russian skill outmatched greater Ukrainian manpower and assets.
Goal: Prepare to administer a narrative of “victim in defense” or play into the classic trope of Russian might.
Lastly, in terms of clenching down on the narrative of a fluctuating economy, the Kremlin is planning to tell its citizens that a great expenditure is being committed to infrastructure, such as educational institutions and hospitals. As for the shrinking workforce — which is clearly because of wartime deaths — Russia doesn’t seem to have a plan.
Goal: Convince Russians their money is being used to improve Russia, not to fund a losing war.
American military aid to Ukraine has topped $35 billion, and has been integral in holding off Russia’s initial assault, queuing a winter stalemate, and now poising Ukraine for a counteroffensive in the East.
While an outright rout of the entire Russian army seems unlikely, Putin is preparing his narrative for a reason. It will be interesting to see what statements the Kremlin makes in the coming weeks and months.
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