Putin’s Troika of Foreign Policy Victories
Vladimir Putin is a name that now — and likely long into the future — is never removed from the discussion of world affairs and foreign policy. And for good reason.
Recently Putin has supported Belarussian President Lukashenko in his re-election as President amidst criticism from the West (i.e. the US and EU). Two days after Lukashenko’s inauguration, Putin has called the EU’s efforts to discredit the elections legitimacy as meddling in Belarussian affairs.
(You can read the details on RFE here)
Our point: Is anyone surprised?
Vladimir Putin, from an objective standpoint, has been the world’s most successful foreign policy mastermind in the last decade.
Russia’s “Troika” of Victories
Seizing Crimea and eastern Ukraine with nearly no repercussions during the time of the Obama administration, Putin soon realized he could act without relative impunity. Obama’s foreign policy was weak and knowing the US couldn’t — or wouldn’t — do anything to respond has defined Putin’s stance in recent years. Ukraine was a test, and the West failed.
Since then, the situation in Ukraine has fallen into the shadows, only really being followed by experts and enthusiasts of the region.
In the years between then and now, Putin has also secured his man in Syria — President Assad — while also expanding Russia’s military experience and modernizing their combat doctrines to better engage in modern warfare. Under President Trump, the US seemed to be taking a greater stand, especially in the Middle East, but it seems like the turmoil of social issues became too much of a distraction, and troops withdrawals have become a part of Trump’s plan. All in time for the election and in the name of “ending endless wars”.
Either way, Russia’s securing of Lukashenko — a man who has run Belarus for over a quarter century— is a major win in terms of Russian diplomatic foreign policy. It secures Russia’s interests in eastern Europe and allows Russia to focus its efforts on interests elsewhere. Lukashenko is certainly indebted to Russia and there is no doubt the Belarussian state is a strong Russian proxy.
The question then is what will the West do?
What Can Western Powers Do?
Only mere denunciations and sanctions have seemed to be the response to Russian actions over the years. Each major victory Putin displays on the world stage is more and more discrediting to Western sentiments and institutions.
What does the EU denouncing Russia do? It is such a common response from Western nations that we already operate with the assumption of Western disapproval! Each victory without an effective response gifts Putin more and more impunity.
With war realistically off the table, what can the US and its Western allies do to deter Russia from achieving more victories in this multipolar world?
