Peace in Ukraine?
Russia has suffered an alleged 70,000 casualties in Ukraine, ordered a mobilization of reserve forces, and has suffered unparalleled economic sanctions. It begs the question, is peace in Ukraine imminent?
The question of peace in Ukraine — at the moment — may seem a farfetched fantasy. But if we look at a recent development by the Russian military command, the question of whether or not peace negotiations may occur seems more legitimate.
On November 10, 2022, The Kyiv Independent reported that Russian troops were ordered to withdraw from Kherson. Additionally, this withdrawal has allegedly been approved by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, one of Putin’s closest compatriots.
If you have been following the war in Ukraine, then Kherson should be familiar to you. Kherson is an important city on the Dnieper River near the Black Sea and is often referred to as a “gateway” to Crimea.
Remember, Crimea has been under Russian occupation since the original Ukraine Crisis in 2014. For Russia to withdraw from Kherson now seems like an explicit indication of weakness.
Putin had previously stated that the use of nuclear weapons were an option, that Russia would commit more troops via the draft mobilization to the conflict; in short, all indications suggested that Russia was fully committed to its war effort.
The retreat from Kherson puts that into question.
I think one thing we should consider is the winter season. It is no secret that Europe is facing an energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine, and Russia is not exempt from that struggle. A few weeks ago many pundits speculated that a Russian withdrawal could happen for the winter season — thus allowing for the consolidation of troops and resources — before making assaults into Ukraine again in the Spring or Summer.
We can’t rule this out either.
As for the question of peace talks though, I think we need to keep this in the back of our minds. After all, the US has been asking the involved parties to be open to peace talks.
Regarding Kherson, I think we need to know more before we can conclude what the media is dying to write; “MASSIVE UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE SUCCEEDS, RUSSIA IN FULL RETREAT.”
The reality is we need to know what exactly Russia wants out of this conflict now, and pundits are torn on this. Many say the full annexation of Ukraine is the goal. Others insist the annexation of eastern, Russian-speaking Oblasts and Crimea remains the target.
While I think the latter is a most likely concession, we also cannot know definitively.
***UPDATE at 0900, 10 November 2022***
Following the recent news that Russian troops would be retreating from Kherson to the east, The Kyiv Independent also reports that Russia is open to negotiations. This statement comes from the Russian Foreign Ministry, and cites American pressure — both diplomatically and through military assistance — as a major factor in the position Russia finds itself in.
I would also add that this news comes as Vladimir Putin states he will not be attending this years G20 summit in Indonesia over fears that Western leaders would have him assassinated.
That’s where we are at for now. Stay up to date by subscribing to The Countermeasure.
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