More war in 2023?
Russia’s war in Ukraine stole the headlines for 2022 — and for good reason — but that conflict has pushed everything else to the wayside. It seems as if all other foreign policy or conversations regarding foreign affairs are somehow linked to that conflict. It would be a major failure to assume that Ukraine in the end-all-be-all when it comes to foreign affairs. So, I am going to remind the world of what conflicts we could see begin, escalate, or resume in 2023.
Turkey and Syria
Syria has suffered from extreme terrorism and civil war for years now, and it was mostly due to the proxy conflict that persisted between the Russian-backed Assad regime and the American presence, against Assad, in the region.
2022 saw Turkey make some interesting moves in Syria as well. On November 13, 2022, 6 people were killed and 81 injured in a bombing in Istanbul. While we do not yet know, officially, who committed the attacks, Turkey blames ISIS and regional Kurds. And what did Turkey do with this opportunity? They ran with it.
Not shortly after the Istanbul attack, Turkey conducted strikes in Syria. Now, as of this writing, Turkey has met with Assad opposition to discuss the nature of diplomatic relations.
Could Turkey come to a new status quo with Assad, or will Turkey expand its military operations in a larger, more frequent capacity in Syria? 2023 might give us an answer.
Iran
Iran is truly a curious case. Earlier this year, protests erupted after the death of Mahsa Amini, but they quickly turned into broader, nationwide protests against the ruling Supreme Leader and his regime.
Iran’s regime is a pariah; they are making progress on nuclear technology with no new nuclear deal in sight, they are a state-sponsor of terrorism, they are human rights violators, and they are sponsoring a proxy war against Israel, and in some regards, the West.
In Iran’s case, I think there is one constant and that is the continuation of this Iran-Israel proxy war in which Iran — intent on the dissolution of Israel — will continue to embolden Hamas and Hezbollah. That is one example, but in general, I think anywhere Iran can utilize terrorism as a tool of policy, it will continue to do so (Yemen, Libya).
Internally, however, it is a more vague situation. Should protests re-emerge at such a large scale as they were, we could witness a sort of “revolution from below” in Iran. Whether or not external forces would involve themselves, and guarantee the removal of the current regime, is uncertain. Uncertain does not mean impossible though.
Armenia and Azerbaijan
In 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought the second large-scale iteration of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is a war that has deep historical and ethnic context, and is one that deserves its own analysis, so I won’t do that here.
That being said, the conflict has seen some sporadic escalation since the implementation of an agreed ceasefire and insertion of Russian peacekeepers. For example, in one skirmish in late 2022, over 100 combatants were killed.
It should also be noted that in a 2022 closed meeting between CSTO members (Russia’s attempt at its version of NATO), Armenia’s PM Pashinyan was seen in a leaked video refusing to sign an unknown document before adjourning the meeting, leaving Putin and Belarus’ Lukashenko shocked. So it may be fair to say that some deep dissatisfaction exists in how the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was mediated.
China and Taiwan
Another potential conflict on the list that isn’t a huge surprise is the prospect of China finally invading Taiwan.
President Xi made it very clear in 2022 that China is still committed to the “reunification” of the “One China”. Whether by peaceful or violent means, it does not matter to the CCP. And seeing as Taiwan is intent on possessing its sovereignty, he route of violence seems every likely.
President Xi has five more years left as the head of the CCP, which would put the end of his reign at 2027. If not 2023, many speculate an invasion of Taiwan could happen within that time period.
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What other conflicts you think could come to a head in 2023? India and China? Tigray, Ethiopia? Venezuela? Turkey and Greece? Let me know in the comments.
