Is the Ukraine counteroffensive over hyped?

Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, recently stated in an interview that the West may be setting its expectations too high when it comes to the future counteroffensive.

Speaking with the Washington Post, Reznikov stated that Ukraine’s previous counteroffensives — such as the ones at Kharkiv and Kherson — have raised expectations from Western leaders. Specifically, those Western leaders who are providing Ukraine with power weapons systems and munitions (i.e. the things that have made this 15 month defiance possible).

Specifically, Reznikov stated that,

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world… Most people are… waiting for something huge.”

It is in these sentiments where Reznikov has tried to lower expectations. Media has hyped the possibility of a Ukrainian counterattack, and Ukraine fears that disappointment might cause military aid donors to reconsider their support for Ukraine.

The United States has led the charge in terms of military aid — topping $35 billion — and countries like Germany and the United Kingdom have finally committed main battle tanks to Ukraine’s cause.

Those weapons and munitions are not always immediately available, however, so Ukraine’s fears that a weak or failed offensive might discourage allies is a justified one. Should Ukraine fail, it is possible that aid could be delayed, making the ultimate arrival — and therefore training time and usage — of weapons systems all the more delayed.

In Russia’s case, they seem to be having the opposite problem; Russia can’t get enough of what it needs, but when it does it gets put to use immediately. The best example of this is missiles and kamikaze drones. Russia has been looking to places like Iran for munitions, and when it receives that logistical support, Russia commits the assets immediately. To what effect? Seemingly none in terms of the offense.

Although, it is possible that is where Russia is best poised for now. As Czech President Pavel recently stated, Russia “…are not so incapable in terms of defence… they have enough manpower, they still have enough equipment…”

So while Russia seems scrambled to really create a long-term plan, let alone some semblance of a combined arms dilemma, Ukraine on the other hand seems more focused.

Lastly, according to the Washington Post article, Russia has prepared its defensive positions since the winter stalemate, and is well-positioned across 900 miles of “front.” Ukraine can either bring all of its assets, new and old alike, together to focus on key objectives, or it can make Russia’s mistake and operate in a disorganized, aimless manner.

So, maybe the anticipated counteroffensive won’t be as large as it is hyped to be. Maybe it will fail. But, Ukraine’s concern shows that it is approaching each stage of this war with goals in mind. Ukraine’s leadership is clearly learning lessons from the West (those people who provide the gear also train Ukrainians on how to operate it), and their integration of assets to support common strategic goals shows for it.

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What do you think? Will Ukraine make a war-altering counteroffensive, or is the media overhyping the situation?