Is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict over?

On May 22, 2023, Russian news agencies broke the news that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is willing to recognize Azerbaijan’s claim over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that the two nations have fought over for decades.

In 1994, the first official war over Nagorno-Karabakh ended, and the dispute dissolved into a low-intensity conflict. In 2020 however, the dispute escalated into a full-blown kinetic war. That war ended with a surprising Armenian defeat and Azerbaijan’s seizure of various cities, towns, and access to the land border with Iran.

Typical of the past conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, the 2020 escalation did not bring the dispute to a full close. A ceasefire was established — primarily under the guidance of the Vladimir Putin — in November 2020 and it led to two major changes:

• A deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region
• Azerbaijani occupation of nearly all of Nagorno-Karabakh

The 2020 conflict didn’t end with that though. While the ceasefire was technically in effect, what it really did was geographically anchor Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in place, created a stalemate more so than an end to the war. It is because of that, that the ceasefire was violated on numerous occasions. There were a handful of times that such violations even reentered the mainstream newscycle long after the interest in the conflict had subsided.

And that perpetual ebb and flow of hostility between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region has been why neither side could agree to a settlement in the past. Now, however, there may be an end in sight.

In that news conference with Ostorozhno, Novosti on May 22, Nikol Pashinyan verbally stated that “…Azerbaijan’s territory includes Nagorno-Karabakh.” The Russian news agency also claimed that the Armenian government is ready to recognize the region as Azerbaijani territory so long as very specific agreements are upheld. Specifically, that the rights of ethnic Armenians still in Nagorno-Karabakh be guaranteed.

The statement is a powerful one from Pashinyan, and for a few reasons. First, it is because as it stands it is merely a verbal expression. There is not an actual agreement to be signed, and Armenia and Azerbaijan will need to pursue a treaty together before a pseudo-white peace can be made official.

Second, Pashinyan’s statement might need to be taken with a grain of salt. This conflict has been at the heart of Armenia’s conscience for decades, if not more than a century. The region has a dense Armenian population, a rich history connected to the Armenian church, and thousands have fought and died in support of their claim there. When Armenia lost the second breakout of this conflict, many Armenians took to the streets demanding Pashinyan step down. It is entirely possible that Pashinyan’s statement could reinvigorate protest in Armenia.

Nothing is truly certain in this old, complex geopolitical bout. On May 25 however, Pashinyan and Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s President, met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss the future prospect of an official treaty. Putin noted that he was hopeful a resolution could be finally made, and that we could see a major diplomatic decision within the next few weeks.

What do you think? Is there going to be a lasting peace in Nagorno-Karabakh? Are Armenia and Azerbaijan making concessions to Vladimir Putin? Let me know in the comments.