Is Russia our biggest threat?
Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war in Ukraine will be a justified corner-fold on the pages of history. That being said, if the world continues to being willing to let the actions of rogue states slip by — much like the West did with the original 2014 Ukraine Crisis — then perhaps more amoral, unjust, and destructive conflicts like the one in Ukraine could become more frequent in this century.
While Russia is one of our (the US and the West) greatest conventional threats, only second to China, I would like to propose a thought I think is worth considering. Specifically, the idea that rogue states — particularly Iran — are equal if not greater threats to regional and world stability.
The context of this idea is a controversial video that has surfaced on the internet. On November 4, President Biden was filmed and question on the JCPOA deal.
For those who do not know, the JCPOA stands for Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Colloquially, it is known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Signed by Germany, France, the US, the UK, the EU and Russia, China, and Iran, the JCPOA was created in 2015 and it served as the framework for guidance and limitation of Iran’s nuclear development.
The plan was controversial when it was announced, and between its implementation and America’s withdrawal under Trump, there was speculation that the Iranians had violated the agreement.
Iranian nuclearization is a dangerous prospect, especially in the Western world, as Iran are ardent supporters of various terrorist groups and activities across the Middle East, are amidst a heated cold war with the Saudis, reject Israeli existence and sovereignty, and seek to do violence against Americans and the US interests abroad. Iran has also been the subject of human rights violations as of late. So while these are a mere few examples amongst myriads, the current regime is a rogue agressor on the international stage.
This context is important because of Biden’s statement in the now-released November 4th video. You can watch it HERE.
In the video, Biden is asked to announce that the JCPOA is “dead” and he replies that it is, but that “we’re not going to announce it.” Whether Biden knew he was being filmed or not is uncertain. Also uncertain is if he knew what he was saying…
Regardless, the blunder is very telling of Biden’s Presidency (willful ignorance to the vast amount of blemishes), but also of America’s recent failures in foreign policy.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, for example, is evident of this. The original Ukraine Crisis was arguably avoidable, but we certainly could have prepared Ukraine for its defense beforehand, or even encouraged EU membership earlier.
In the Pacific, we have China, who the US also cannot seem to master through policy. China has stood strong with its ambition to seize Taiwan, and while it has yet to occur, China seems to be preparing with the necessary measures. Specifically, its years long military expansion and modernization, as well as its island building and contestation in the South China Sea.
Iran is the third party to this triumvirate of foreign policy blunders. Relations with the Iranians are not good. Even now, Iran has taken the side of Russia in the war in Ukraine and is providing Russia with weapons that allow for the targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure and strategic assets like missile defenses. Iran is doing this, mostly, through the sale of drones.
Biden’s statement that the Iran Nuclear Deal is dead in the water is indicative of two things:
- That the US is struggling to develop soft power with its adversaries and, as a result, is perpetuating rogue behavior that ultimately lead to events we now see in Ukraine.
- That the deal being dead indicates it was a bad deal to begin with, and we made it anyways.
What do you think? How can the US develop stronger foreign policy to manage its adversaries better? Is Iran a major threat, or is such an assessment an overreaction?
Let me know in the comments below! Don’t forget to join my FREE newsletter.
