Is Russia forcing a larger war in Ukraine?

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military mobilization plan with the intent to draft new Russian forces from the Russian populace.

Many Russians have been up in arms. Across Russia (mostly in Moscow), some 1500 people were arrested after they protested the draft announcement, as well as the war itself.

This is not the first time Russians have protested the war en masse, however. With persistent dissent against the conflict in Russia itself, it is important to ask if Putin is forcing a larger conflict for its own sake.

I have heard some punditry suggesting that Russians haven’t felt the burden of the war as of yet; that foreign fighters and mercenaries have been doing the fighting.

Regardless of if this is true or not, the Russian people have certainly been feeling the effects of the conflict. This is not a young war. In fact, it has been quite protracted as Russian forces have been conducting military operations in Ukraine since 2014.

With Western sanctions, Russians have also been feeling the war in their pockets. Additionally, with broken diplomatic relations and sanctions, Russian civil liberties and abilities to travel abroad have been scrutinized as well. The “norm” for Russians have certainly changed, and the draft is a thick layer of icing on the cake.

So to say Russians have not felt the weight of the conflict is false. Looking ahead, what we should be concerned about is two things:

First, the idea that this conflict is growing in scale. More troops means larger scale military operations, and at a greater frequency. Additionally, Putin has touted the use of nuclear weapons as a possibility; a threat that must always be taken seriously regardless of how “true” it appears.

Second, and my opinion, is that the draft and escalation of troop building is a sign of Putin’s intent to not give in.

Many in the West - and Ukraine itself - have touted the so-called “offensive” against Russia as a turning point in the war; that somehow Russia is on its last legs.

Sure, maybe the war has gone in an unanticipated direction for Putin. But Russia is not defeated. What I believe we will see is a slow shift towards a protracted war; a continuation of what observers have witnessed since 2014. Putin intends to get Russia’s “neighborhood” under his control.

To Russia, Ukraine is theirs. The cost may simply be a longer conflict than Putin and is oligarchs anticipated, but it is not over.

Unorthodox methods of recruitment seem bizarre to the West (and armchair pundits on Twitter), but these methods are not unusual for a Russian regime such as Putin’s. We can’t necessarily interpret it as a decision made out of desperation to succeed. Resorting to the recruitment of amoral mercenaries, criminals, thugs, and societal deviants is not abnormal for Russia. To that end, the conscription of everyday, decent people isn’t off the table either.

So with those two ideas in the ether, we simply have to continue to watch. Is Russia going to turn this back into a proxy-like conflict? Or, are we going to see an escalated scale of Russia’s potential (better logistics, better employment of legacy weapon systems)?

Let’s keep an eye on events in Ukraine, as well as inside Russia itself.

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