Is China in a downward spiral?

Ukraine, Russia, and Zelenskyy have stolen the limelight of G7, but the Group of Seven recently made some interesting comments on China.

The G7 attendees — US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada — have been in Hiroshima, Japan, to discuss intragroup relations. With hopes that the summit would make progress on things like economics, inflation, trade, China policy, mutual defense, etc., it was Ukraine and Russian sanctions that stole the show.

In some regards G7 can be summed up as follows: Policy for Ukraine and Russia, rhetoric towards China. Because the G7 did offer up a statement on what is essentially Western-led relations with China.

The G7 urged Beijing to begin to operate as a government “that plays by international rules.” Additionally, the G7 warned that any attempt by China to make a move on Taiwan — like Russia to Ukraine — would meet similar failures. Whether this is because of implied intervention on Taiwan’s behalf, it is not certain.

But it is not the threatening posture of the G7 I am interested in, it is the suggestion that China should “play by the rules.” Why? Because there is an implied interest behind following rules, specifically, that other nations would be willing to work with you.

I think this deserves some investigating, because the statement is more complex than it appears. On one hand, yes, it would be of the world’s benefit if China would stop its predatory and tyrannical policies. On the other hand, there has been a downward trend in relations between China and what is essentially the Western-led World Order. In that regard, it is not necessarily clear that G7 and the like actually want to work with China.

Why might that be? It all comes down to the internal health of the China, specifically the economy and the civil support for the CCP; two things that China has kept a shady wrap on.

Starting with the economy, we are starting to see more and more publications that suggest the CCP is struggling to maintain targets, and that the health of the Chinese economy is in a critical state. Here are some articles that support that notion:

• China is calling in loans from abroad
• The state of China’s economy is a facade
• Chinese Yuan is essentially worthless

If you want a TL;DR, China is essentially defaulting on its debt (particularly in the housing market) and many of the core deals surrounding its Belt and Road Initiative (China’s attempted masterwork of foreign policy) are also falling through.

While these are not the hottest headlines on the year, it is no secret that the state of the Chinese economy is in question. China has also not fully recovered from the effects of COVID, and their economy has been under scrutiny ever since.

Transitioning from the economic tenets, we also need to look at something kept equally under wraps by the CCP; the support of Chinese citizens.

It wasn’t long ago that protests erupted throughout China, surpassing the infamous Tiananmen Square protests in scale. Originally spurred on by COVID policy and procedures that led to unnecessary death of Chinese citizens, the protests turned into anti-CCP and anti-Xi movements overnight. Shockingly, the CCP’s response at the time was to double back on their containment policy, and to quietly address the demonstrations. Ultimately, they faded out and ceased altogether.

But, that doesn’t necessarily mean Xi and the CCP has the support of the people, and amidst an economy that is no longer growing (it is in fact hemorrhaging money), I think it is time to question whether or not the CCP is at an existential crossroads.

Will the CCP collapse and be unseated? Highly unlikely. Could we see a civil movement or some sort of internal struggle within China? Yes.

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What do you think? Is the CCP keeping a tight grip on turmoil within their borders? Are they as powerful as they’d like to appear? Have they been grandstanding to the world community; flexing but hiding a lack of muscle to back it?