Is a global shift against China occurring?

The Pacific region has been a buzz recently, and while news of the Chinese Surveillance balloon have gone mainstream, some other developments have been overshadowed by it.

Let’s take a look at some of the important events that have happened in the Pacific, and what it means for policy against China.

It is my view that we are beginning to see indications of a shift in American-Chinese relations.

Cooperation with the Philippines

In the Philippines, President Marcos has adopted a fresh, strong foreign policy that is centered around an American partnership. This comes as a relief; in conjunction with Japan’s defense spending pledge, the decision in the Philippines to work closer with the US is a sign of the world — and the Pacific — finally recognizing the Chinese treat at the doorstep.

Marcos’ policy is particularly welcome because of the Philippines strategic location in the Pacific, a history of decent relations, and transparent assurances — all things the were deteriorating or made uncertain under Duterte.

Specifically, Marcos’ policy allows for the US to occupy four new defensive sites within the Philippines. Additionally, Washington has announced that the US would conduct join patrols in the South China Sea with our Filipino counterparts on a regular basis.

The development is mutually beneficial for both sides; for the US, we can further joint operational capabilities while also maintaining a more robust security posture in the region. For the Filipino’s, they get more support and certainty in securing their territorial claims in the South China Sea, an issue that has been at the forefront of Filipino-Chinese relations.

Lastly, Marcos also brought clarity to the Filipino stance on Taiwan, stating that he finds it “hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippine’s will not somehow get involved.”

A Visit to Taiwan

Following the Chinese Surveillance Balloon incident — and the subsequent neutralization of UFO’s over American airspace — the US Congress sent a delegation to Taiwan to meet with political and business leaders, as well as a potential meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen.

The visit is a good display of unity and support for Taiwan and our relations with them, but there is something to be said to the caliber of people we have sent; it is not to say a visit from members of Congress is not an honor, but before the balloon incident, there was talks that new Speaker of the House, Republican Kevin McCarthy, was going to make a visit himself.

So while US policy on China seems to be heading towards levels it needs to be at, it also seems as if we are treading water carefully, and take any threat from the CCP for what it is worth.

North Korean Missiles

On Monday, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the ocean which prompted the Japanese government to request an emergency meeting with the UN Security Council.

North Korea’s involvement in world affairs is quite peculiar, but exactly what we should expect given the current climate; they are a puppet to the CCP and are providing material aid to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

It is no surprise then that such missiles displays are still occurring. North Korea had a record-breaking year of missile tests and threats in 2022 — a factor which prompted Japan’s defense overhaul — and it seems as if 2023 is going to carry the same momentum. I think it is also safe to assume that North Korea is doing this, in part, at the behest of the CCP; serving a reminder to the US and its allies that China is not alone, and the Pacific is not wholly for the taking.

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What did I miss? Do you think the US and our allies are moving towards better policy on China?

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