I'd like to hear the logic explained here a bit more.

For someone with no knowledge of the war in Ukraine, this would make it sounds like NATO somehow orchestrated the Russian invasion.

Russia does not adhere to the will of NATO or the West, so the fact that it happened is out of their hands. Absolutely, poor policy certainly didn't deter Russia. But, even if it had, would the war not have happened down the line?

Equating Vietnam (when we were the aggressor) to Ukraine (in which we are the proxy supporter) is not even remotely similar. If anything, Ukraine is proving to be Russia's Vietnam (or Afghanistan pt. 2).

And given how much the West, and the US in particular, has given to Ukraine to defend itself and deny Russia the opportunity to win via combined arms would suggest the opening to your statement is also false. As a strictly defensive pact, NATO members are not going to "up the ante" (whatever that vague phrase of speech implies) without an open kinetic engagement by Russia.