I hear what you're saying. Two big tings here, given the pace of the war and the political disposition of Belarus.

1. Nothing necessarily has to happen in the short term for Russia. Yes, they have suffered a large figure of casualties and have lost some territory from earlier in the war, but Russia still possesses a lot of what it had post-2014 Ukraine Crisis.

Ukraine is struggling to maintain its infrastructure and, according to statements to the media, is running low on ammunition, especially for artillery and GBAD assets. I think Russia wants this war to go slowly now, since their "Blitzkrieg" failed.

2. Lukashenko's regime is always in jeopardy, regardless of what capability he has to offer or not. From that realization, he can offer Putin simply whatever is asked of him. If it is staging grounds, then so be it. If it is soldiers in Russian uniforms, maybe that happens. If he wants Belarus to continue to push migrants across the border and wreak havoc, they will.

Belarus under Lukashenko is a perpetual Putin ally because Lukashenko is indentured to him. 2020-21 protests showed, very openly, how much the Belarusian people dislike the current regime. When this conflict dies down - and if Putin faces the chopping block - I would bet Belarus flips as well.

"Putin needs time to prepare his mobilized troops."

That's exactly what is happening in this lull.