Germany pledges billions to Ukraine
On Saturday, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Germany is being praised for its recent stance in supporting Ukraine, but it may not be as righteous as we are being led to believe. Is Germany’s new-found support for Ukraine a result of classic realpolitik?
When Zelenskyy arrived in Berlin on Saturday, he met with Chancellor Schulz in his first visit to Germany since the invasion took place. Upon the joint appearance, it was announced that Germany would provide Ukraine with a new military aid package worth $3 billion.
The package includes technologies and platforms that have been strategic force-multipliers for Ukraine, such as Leopard II tanks and air defense systems. With a Ukrainian counteroffensive apparently underway, Germany’s commitment comes at a good time.
The German Defense Minister even stated that Germany would assist Ukraine in their war efforts for “as long as it takes.” This rhetoric is new for Germany, and a clear indication of where German policy stands for the future.
A particular aspect of Zelenskyy’s German tour that adds to the intrigue here is his visit with President Steinmeier. Steinmeier — much like Germany as a whole — was originally very hesitant to support Ukraine. Steinmeier himself was a target of Ukrainian doubts, as he has previous close ties with Russian diplomats and elites.
Those disagreements have apparently blown over and Germany has crossed the fence into greener pastures, so to speak.
If that notion seems accusatory of Germany being opportunist, well, it is. It is German realpolitik in true form.
Germany found itself in a predicament during the period surrounding the invasion of Ukraine. Germany was one of the dependents for Russian gas, and much of the policy from Scholz — despite soft rhetoric — indicated that Germany might have been open to maintaining diplomatic norms with Russia.
Germany’s military posture is a major contributing factor to their ability — and willingness — to aid Ukraine, but it doesn’t change the fact that German aid only really began to show once it was clear Russia was not going to steamroll Kyiv.
In my opinion, it is a smart political play. Russia could have very well performed how the world assumed they would; with a quick victory and an organized occupation of Ukraine. A scenario like that would have put Germany in an interesting position. Saving face, like the did, was the preparation for that.
Now, Russia’s failures have written their fate, and Germany is reorganizing its policy and commitments to reflect that. Helmets to Leopard IIs and IRIS-T SLM air defense systems is quite the upgrade.
Regardless of my speculating, Germany now seems much more committed to a holsitic partnership with Ukraine. While it seems safe to assume the US and NATO will continue to prop up Ukraine’s military, some are starting to wonder what the reconstruction endeavors will look like. It is possible that Germany could take a big role in that too.
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