Could Russia lose from within?
News of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting the Russia army near Belgorod have spurred on ideas that Moscow and its allies could be facing bigger, regime-threatening uprisings.
On May 25, 2023, media outlets and conflict observers across social media began reporting that a group of pro-Ukraine Russians had taken up arms against Russia and seized a town outside of Belgorod.
The group, known as the “Freedom for Russia Legion,” are the ones who have claimed to carried out the assault and seizure of the town. These partisans have constructed an interesting dilemma for Putin and his leadership. Let’s discuss.
The assault in Belgorod has altered the war. It has made the Russian military’s ability to conduct operations and make expedient decisions all the more difficult? Why? Because the attack was a shaping operation.
In simple terms, shaping operations are those that aid in setting conditions for a larger, more strategic operation. Additionally, the goal is that shaping operations also increase the likelihood of success for the main objective. Thinks like speed, timing, and coordination all play a major part in whether or not those effects persist.
In the case of the Freedom for Russia Legion, it seems their attack has had some positive impacts.
- Russian military leaders need to decide when and where to allocate resources and manpower, theoretically complicating their operational plans
- The Russian government feels it must combat internal subversion at home, allocating time and resources to policing
- The scenario serves as a powerful propaganda tool; it motivates Ukrainians and influences the morale of Russians fighting in Ukraine
- Foreign leaders can manipulate the situation
It is the last point — how foreign leaders can manipulate the scenario — that gets us to the question of the day. Can Russia lose the war from within? Some seem to think so.
One Polish General, Waldemar Skrzypczak, has cited the incident in Belgorod as the initial signs of a broader resistance against Russia being formed. Specifically, Skrzypczak spoke on Russia’s ally and invasion accomplice — Belarus.
Skrzypczak spoke with Polsat News and stated the attack shows that not all Russians are behind Putin, his policies, and his war. He specifically stated that “It is time for the Russian people to at least partially abandon their allegiance to Putin.”
Skrzypczak also seems to think that similar incidents could occur in Belarus. The General even stated that Poland should be prepared to help such operations if they do occur. Stating the Belarus lacks the military capability to thwart an uprising, and that Putin’s army is unable to bail him out as he did in 2020–21, Skrzypczak believes it could lead to the ruin of Lukashenko’s regime.
Circling back to Russia, it could very well be that more attacks like the one in Belgorod lead to Russia taking precautionary measures. Could such attacks end the war? Not likely.
I think what is likely is that we continue to see all manner of small skirmishes and acts of sabotage, wether by partisans of conventional forces. Russia stands in a stronger position than the media would care to admit. What is shadowing that fact is Moscow’s ability to throw industry and manpower at their military conundrum.
Like history has shown before, the Russians are looking to recover from a “slow start.” Attacks like the one in Belgorod make for good and exciting news, and they complicate the command and control apparatus of Russia’s armed forces, but that appears to be the extent of its effectiveness for now.
What do you think? Comment below.
