Could Iran Collapse?
Just over 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini, protests have persisted throughout Iran and have — not surprisingly — turned deadly.
Just today it was reported that protesters in Zahedan were shot and killed. Yesterday, a similar incident occurred in the Kurdish region of Mahabad. Iran is even receiving support from protests abroad.
Protesting is not unique to Iran. Despite a regime that has a tight grip on the civil liberties of its citizens, the people continue to voice their concerns when it matters. Even in the face of violence and death.
So, while I admit protesting in Iran is not unusual, I do think Iran is in a peculiar spot. It is no question that the Iranian Regime is unpopular with the West. If one were to look back at Iran’s actions in recent memory, you might recall them taking American sailors hostage, repeated funding and sponsoring of terrorist cells across the Middle East, violations treaties pertaining to nuclear weapons, or even now, the violent suppression of domestic dissenters and the sale of drones and technology to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
One thing is certain, Iran is an dangerously unpredictable.
Yet despite the existence of such a hostile state, I want to ask the question as to whether or not the Ayatollah regime is at an existential crossroads.
The regime’s nature — its foreign policy, its suppression of civil liberties, its medieval interpretation of Islam — are all factors that necessitate a “tight grip” on the country. The problem Iran faces — and will continue to face — is the outcry both inside and outside of its borders whenever they continue to promote hostility, violate international law and agreements, or sideswipe human rights.
So while Iran exists in a perpetual balancing act inside its closed borders, I think it is also worth mentioning the pressure from abroad. I have two specific examples I think are worthy:
- Breaking international law/selling drones, weapons, and tech to Russia
Iran selling drones and surface to air missiles (SAMs) to Russia is a violation of a 2015 UN Security Council resolution; a resolution that states any such sales must be approved individually.
This is not unordinary for Iran, who has sponsored terrorism throughout the Middle East via its Quds forces for years. Continuing to stoke proxy conflicts abroad — that hinder Western/American progress will continue. Aligning so closely to Russia, however, is a little more worrisome.
2. The assassination of Suleimani
The drone strike on the former Quds commander Suleimani in 2020 was a game-changing event in world politics. The Trump Whitehouse had demonstrated to Iran, when no one else would, that certain violations of not only international laws, but norms, would not go unpunished.
It is true that the Biden administration resembles nothing of the Trump administration especially when it pertains to foreign policy. That being said, the point I want to make clear is that Iran is more vulnerable from foreign interdiction than any seems to realize. In a sharp change in policy or a new president in 2024 could mean for rough seas ahead for the Ayatollah regime.
These two factors — the simple realization that Iran is not untouchable — in combination with the fragile nature of Iran’s domestic politics, show that the regime is constantly fighting to survive.
Such is the nature of a state held in hostage.
__________
If you enjoyed this piece, consider following The Countermeasure here on Medium or on Twitter (@thecmeasure).
