China’s phony Ukraine peace plan
Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has had its one year anniversary, and as Russia struggles to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, China has entered as a two-faced onlooker; preaching peace and mediation while looking to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition.
In a Bloomberg article, Hal Brands breaks down the nature of China’s role perfectly:
“Beijing may be trying a strategic two-step. Step one was introducing the vague and unworkable peace plan that allows Xi Jingping to publicly offer to play mediator in a brutal war. Step two could be to increase military or quasi-military aid to Russia, doing so quietly enough that Beijing can avoid openly acknowledging it.”
Additionally, and what I think is a new driving force behind the war effort, “…it could just allow Putin to protract a war that consumes US resources and attention…”
If we look at the specifics of China’s 12 Point Peace Plan, we find that there are no real specifics. Rhetoric focuses around the generic calls for peace via de-escalation, a ceasefire, and open avenues of diplomacy. The only real specific demand is for sanctions to be lifted against Russia.
It would seem that China’s bluff has been called, however. Speaking of the two-faced stance from China, Oleksandr Merezhko, Chair of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, called the Chinese posture “…a set of declarative empty slogans; it’s not backed by specifics or an implementation mechanism.”
Additionally, Merezhko spoke more to the nature of China’s phony plan:
“The plan calls on Russia and Ukraine to deal with the issue themselves, which would only benefit Russia; China continues to oppose what it calls unilateral sanctions and asks for the sanctions to be approved by the UN Security Council — well, given the fact that the aggressor is a permanent UNSC member with a veto right, this claim is beyond ridiculous.”
Merezkho hits the nail right on the head, and his statement draws two ideas to my mind. First, that China’s intent is to configure a facade as a peace-broker with the intent to improve China’s image abroad. In doing this, China has set itself up to deliver empty rhetoric and project some type of moral superiority. How? Because their efforts have expended and wasted diplomatic currency with Russia. The conflict remains frozen, and open for China to progress with its primary goal — supply Russia with lethal aid.
The second idea that Merezkho has nurtured is the illegitimacy of international institutions, as explained in the latter portion of his statement. Russia is a permanent UNSC voting member, and therefore has a perpetual method of holding the war as a diplomatic hostage. In this case, China did it on Russia’s behalf. China can say “We tried peace, we brought it to the highest international political body for review” knowing full well the outcome would favor Russia. This idea is further supported by the fact that the UN recently voted for Russia to immediately withdraw from Ukraine. China and Russia were, naturally, unwilling to address this vote.
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What do you think? Is China exploiting the war in Ukraine to improve its image abroad while also extending the conflict to occupy US efforts and expenditure?
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