China leverages diplomatic dialogue with the United States
On May 31, 2024, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese counterpart (Defense Minister Dong Jun) in Singapore.
Media outlets have praised the meeting between the American and Chinese officials, citing it as preventative diplomacy intent on pushing the countries away from hostility and towards diplomacy.
A week before, however, the Chinese military conducted wargames around Taiwan as a show of force. The exercises were intended to threaten Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching Te, as he took office. Around that time, an American delegation from Congress visited the new president. You can read more about it here:
Needless to say, the events leading up to Secretary Austin’s meeting likely had everyone on edge.
The meeting between Secretary Austin and Dong Jun (the CCP Defense Minister) occurred at the same time as the Shangri-La defense summit. The two left the meeting in agreement that the U.S. and China should keep an open dialogue into the future.
The meeting is the first meeting between Austin and Dong, and is the first meeting between ministers since 2022 (China had cut defense communication in protest to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan).
While Dong was quick to tell media that an open dialogue with the United States is desirable, he also doubled down his rhetoric on Taiwan, stating the nation belongs to China and is run by “separatists”.
Interestingly, Austin and Dong also discussed China’s involvement with Russia, claiming the CCP has provided military aid to Moscow’s war effort, a suggestion the CCP denies.
Commentary:
There is a lot to be conflicted about here. On one hand, the United States must entertain diplomatic dialogue and transparency with China. On the flip side, China can leverage dialogue for some distinct advantages.
It can get a better feel for where the United States is at policy-wise, and it can use dialogue as a type of slate scrubber. Here is what I mean by that.
When China conducted those exercises last week, it enveloped all of Taiwan. They got good training, they made a statement. And after it is all said and done, they are held accountable to no one. And so, a week later, after a meeting and handshaking, the slate is clean because we have a “new, mutual understanding.”
These are what we call “Salami tactics,” and they are designed to change the status quo of politics and military engagements for scenarios exactly like the one we face with Taiwan.
The United States has a monumental task (during an election year no less) to finally determine what its China and Taiwan policy is. As it stands, the CCP cannot mount an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Media and diplomatic press releases indicate that China is seeking to, somehow, diplomatically seize Taiwan and reintegrate them much like they did with Hong Kong.
Whatever the case, the primary political, economic, and defense concern is the aggression of the CCP.
