China doubles down on Taiwan
On November 22, Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met in Cambodia to discuss security concerns between the two nations.
American and Chinese relations have been somewhat tense as of late, so the meeting was organized to manage discomfort between the two powers. Despite the apparent mutual interest to arrive at common ground, China has stuck to its goals and rhetoric while the US — very unsure of its China strategy — seems to just accept those desires while wanting to find a peaceful solution.
Fenghe stated that the Chinese are standing strong with their goal to seize Taiwan, and that any action taken to undermine that goal would be crossing a “red-line.”
Fenghe also stated, in the words of China Daily, that “…the US must adopt a rational perspective toward China’s development. Moreover, in order to achieve a good China-US relationship, the US should not demonize or contain China, nor should it interfere in China’s domestic affairs or jeopardize China’s interests.”
One factor that is so interesting and — frankly — impressive is the CCP’s ability to craft a slippery narrative and disseminate it, accurately, from a top down level. (Perhaps this is the topic for another article — highlight here if you’d like to read such a piece).
To continue, this meeting comes at an interesting time, because President Biden and President Xi recently had a much anticipated meeting at G20 in which similar rhetoric was used; China is focused on Taiwan, both the US and China want some mutual cooperation and more diplomatic connections.
Additionally, even before G20 was the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Congress in which Xi addressed members of government, the Chinese people, and the world. Again, the rhetoric was the same; China seeks to seize Taiwan by any means necessary. in Xi’s own words, “Complete reunification of our country must be realized, and it can, without a doubt, be realized!”
The last point to consider is that Xi, before attending G20, had been relatively absent for some time from the world stage. He was not appearing for meetings or speeches or big media events. Xi’s recent activity abroad have included diplomatic meetings in Central Asia, the attendance of G20, and the meeting with President Biden.
All of these, in which the same unified message to seize Taiwan is at the core of policy, indicate that China is doubling down on Taiwan.
This is quite a serious realization because the CCP have been threatening the seizure of Taiwan for decades, and it never came. Now, however, we are hearing more and more talk surrounding the issue, and more and more indications that China is preparing for the necessary operations.
Some observers are beginning to look at the 2027 timeframe as to when we could see an invasion of Taiwan. Remember, at the 20th Congress, the CCP essentially placed Xi in power for another five year term. This means his goals, policies, plans, and personnel all carry forward with him to 2027.
With this in mind, the question of a US China strategy is at the forefront of policy concerns. While the US has sold weapons to Taiwan under the current adminstration and stated the US would respond with military force, there still seems to be an air of uncertainty around how we work with the Chinese in the meantime. Taiwan is a major concern because of the potential for a kinetic conflict, but the US also needs to manage its place as leader of the world economy; a concern that is in some ways more concerning than the Taiwan issue.
In a holistic sense, the US strategy on China seems to be to buy more time.
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