Can Russia still win?

Many people look to the failed offensive in Ukraine, the inefficient logistics, and the mass casualties Russia has suffered, and they assume that Russia cannot possibly triumph in any way; that it simply cannot achieve its foreign policy goals.

What onlookers of foreign affairs fail to realize is that Putin and his cronies are not trying to win over the West; their target is the developing world, the pot of potential were theoretical hegemony exists for the future.

Let’s explore what I mean by this.

To do that, we need to look at the sentiments and narrative Russia prescribes in order to drive policy both in Russia and abroad. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently released a new foreign policy outlook that actually illustrates these points quite well.

Putin just created a new anti-Western foreign policy outlook

In typical Russian fashion, Russia is seeking to develop patriotism and motivation through highlighting some key factors of what it means to be Russian (appears to mean anyways). Some of those things are:

• A long history of suffering, both domestically but especially by Western powers
• Triumph, at great cost, in WWII
• A alleged potential that was never met with the USSR
• A history of colonialism and exploitation by Western powers, and nothing else
• A Western World Order that corrupts international institutions to suppress powers like Russia

All these factors have been at the core of Russia’s “identity” or psyche for decades. Some of them have even persisted from the days of Tsardom.

The Countermeasure

And now, in the most complex geopolitical climate the world has ever seen, Russia’s place at the literal geographic, cultural, historical, and ideological periphery are more powerful than ever. Why? Because Russia no longer needs to try and woo and persuade Western powers; it no longer has to “pay to play” as a world power anymore.

Russia can exclusively focus on persuading and partnering with the world-powers-to-be. This includes China, India, and Iran to name a few. It is this quartet, specifically, that allows Russia a great deal of potential to achieve its expansionist and economic goals, all while bypassing previous hinderances of the West.

Trade, for example, could flow directly through the Caucasus, through Iran, and then directly to India. As for China, Russia already has a direct connection.

Looking at map, we can notice those that Russia has maintained a firm grip on: Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Caucasus. There are improving relations with nations like Serbia, Syria, and Turkey. Russia’s attempted land grab in Ukraine is the only major roadblock to Russian foreign policy success in the last decade, if not more.

So while yes, Russia has suffered some catastrophic and surprising losses in Ukraine, we need to consider two facts:

1. That Russia may be willing to — as it has in the past — expend great loss for great gains and
2. That we are thinking too highly of ourselves by assuming everyone should want to align to the West, rather than Russia and nations like it

Russia’s new foreign policy outlook laid out some interesting rhetoric that made it easy — not necessarily correct — for the developing world to align with Moscow. In tandem with that piece, we need to take a deep introspective look at Western society; it is in a crisis of values and ideology, and is teetering on economic recession.

When we look at policy towards our adversaries, it is time to subvert sensationalism and spectacle. We must begin to view them as serious, capable threats while working to restore our virtuous ideologies, customs, behaviors, and beliefs.

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What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.