A new kind of defeat for Russia
Media outlets have been buzzing with the report of a series of drone strikes conducted by Ukraine. The strikes are not ordinary strikes however, because they were conducted within Russia’s borders.
On December 7, it was reported that Ukrainian drone strikes hit targets deep inside Russia’s borders. While various strikes have landed in Russia closer to Ukraine’s border, these strikes were much longer in range. Of the three known strikes, one hit an airbase less than 150 miles from Moscow while another, which struck two bombers, occurred at Engels-2 airbase which is some 300 miles from Ukraine’s eastern border.
The attacks started a fire at a refueler, killed three personnel, and damaged two bombers. Russia reportedly responded with more artillery and missile strikes, the effects of which are less certain due to Russia’s persistent use of such a tactic.
Regardless, Ukraine’s strikes that penetrated deeper into Russia’s heartland are symbolic of the turning-tide everyone has been talking about. Additionally, it is a cold new reality for Russia whose losses had previously been reduced to inside Ukraine’s borders. The idea that Russian strategic assets — within Russia — can be struck will certainly mess with the Russian military’s decision-making, operation planning, operation tempo, and capabilities. In a war in which Russia has been unable to dominate the airspace, the potential for their strategic airbases to be targeted is a new blunder, and a new type of defeat.
The Ukrainian armed forces even took to Twitter to mock the event in an attempt to increase morale and partner-nation buy-in, as well as to discourage Russian forces and their supporters. Seeing as Russia has openly acknowledged the attacks, and Western media has absolutely ran with the story, I would say the secondary effect of using the strikes for PR was a great success.
These strikes come at a time when Ukraine is struggling to keep up its stock of arms, Zelenskyy has stated he will not accept or maintain a peace negotiation, and Russia has stated it will not entertain peace so long as this “special operation” is still underway. At a time when the war has seemed like it was at a standstill for winter, Russia is facing a larger strategic loss within its own borders now. If Ukraine’s new drone program can reproduce these results more frequently, perhaps Ukraine can entice Russia to be more open to negotiations, and quicker than they would be otherwise.
In acknowledging the strikes, US Secretary of State Blinken said that “We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia.” It is uncertain then if the US had a role in the strikes, either by procuring the drones, passing Ukraine the intelligence, or aiding in the command and control for the sorties. What is also unclear is if the US would be willing to support such operations in the future; both in procuring the drones for Ukraine or in assisting with the mission planning and execution.
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