A coup in Kazakhstan?
On November 17, the Kazakh government stated that there was a failed coup attempt that had taken place, just before the snap presidential election on November 20.
The coup, according to Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee, was organized by a group of seven individuals who were allegedly attempting to “organize riots and a coup and proclaim a provisional government.” The only specific details given are that these alleged saboteurs are in favor of the exiled Mukhtar Ablyazov, one of the few “realistic” candidates in opposition to incumbent Tokayev.
While there are no other specific details, Kazakhstan did have some serious anti-government protests at the beginning of the year — ones that saw Russian troops enter Almaty under CSTO obligations. Additionally, Mukhtar has been known to promote riots and protests.
Whether the “coup” happened or not, the news of it comes at an interesting time for Kazakhstan. Tokayev, the current President, is expected to cruise to victory on November 20. From there, it is likely he will form a new government, including the selection of a Prime Minister, to help carry out his vision for Kazakhstan’s future. Victory would mean he could stay in office for a seven year term.
What is also particularly interesting is the recent visit by China’s Xi this past September. At their meeting, Xi expressed delight at the strong relations between Kazakhstan and China, saying that there is a “high level of mutual trust and cooperation” between the two states. Likewise, Tokayev had a strong message:
“During this short period, we have established strong interstate ties. I sincerely thank you for your support for Kazakhstan’s economic development and our international initiatives…”
Tokayev’s position as president also seemed assured by Xi, who stated China would “categorically oppose the interference of any forces in the internal affairs” of Kazakhstan. Mind you, this quote was before the coup allegations. If more real riots occur — like in January 2022 — then maybe Chinese troops could enter Kazakhstan, rather than Russian.
Regardless of that speculation, Tokayev will be a character to watch in the region. Many seem to think he is attempting to follow an authoritarian modernization model much like Xi himself led in China. It is no surprise then that Xi is such a big supporter of Tokayev and his ambitions, as Kazakhstan also remains a key region in China’s seemingly forgotten Belt and Road Initiative.
Keep this in the back of your mind as well; Kazakhstan is Russia’s “backyard”, and as China looks for partners to achieve its Pacific hegemony, Russia also is looking to recoup its losses from the Ukraine war. Kazakhstan, a huge broker of energy as well, can be a strong middleman for a greater Russo-Chinese partnership.
I’m certainly going to keep an eye on the region and what happens there, so follow me on Medium to get notified of new articles.
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