6 Takeaways from the National Defense Strategy
It has been made clear that in 2022, the US interprets China as its number one adversary, followed closely by Putin’s Russia.
The recently released National Defense Strategy (NDS), which includes nuclear and missile defense strategy, outlines the developmental track of American foreign policy.
In short, the US is finally starting to recognize China as the threat it is; at least in rhetoric (still lacking in actual policy and decision-making though). Right at the very beginning, the NDS cites Biden as saying that China is “the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order, and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.”
Given the strong rhetoric on China as a peer threat and rival, let's take a focused look at the “Security Environment” and “Defense Priorities” sections of the NDS to get a deeper look at the threats, and the plans to beat them.
- Alignment of values
The NDS does a very smart thing that one should expect with the renewal of foreign policy projects; it reaffirms America’s interests.
Those are to guarantee the security of the American people, expand economically, and defend and project the American values and way of life (NDS, 1).
The affirmation of something that seems so obvious to foreign policy observers may seem silly, but it is actually incredibly valuable when it comes to developing policy. At the very least it serves as a guiding principle when dealing with potential partners. China is a good example of this because had their economic prospects not been so lucrative, they’d be an impossible partner to work with.
We are on the potential cusp of that relationship changing in this coming decade.
2. China is a strategic threat
The NDS characterizes our relationship with China as that of “strategic Competition.” The PRC is the only nation capable of altering the world order, and the NDS recognizes the CCP’s plan for the Indo-Pacific region as the core foundation to that possibility.
The NDS makes a point to mention — what I sincerely think is a change in rhetoric — the “authoritarian preferences” of the CCP. To add weight to that characterization, the NDS also warns of the growing size and capability of the People’s Liberation Army (the Communist Party’s personal military).
These two statements both lead to the elephant in the room; Taiwan.
The NDS outlines the American distaste for the “increasingly provocative” rhetoric from the CCP when talking about Taiwan. China has recently been sticking with its narrative that it will, one day, come under control of Taiwan. For years the question has been both “by what means?” and “when?”
It seems that China will seize Taiwan by force, and perhaps within the next five years under President Xi’s third — and unusual — term.
The NDS labels the PRC as a “pacing threat” which means that we are essentially in an arms race of sorts; preparing for a kinetic conflict that, while avoidable, is appearing ever more likely.
3. Russia is an acute threat, second only to China
The NDS has listed Russia as an acute threat, a decision that seems to be controversial among foreign policy pundits.
Citing the invasion of Ukraine, the NDS views Russia as an unhinged regime chasing old Imperial ambitions (I guess this answers the question as to if Putin was rebuilding the Tsardom or the USSR…)
The point of controversy lies in how the NDS views Russia’s methods of achieving its goals; gray zone conflicts and proxy wars, nuclear threats, cyber warfare, etc.
In my opinion, the NDS should cover Russia’s economic warfare more closely because Europe is a mess without Russian gas. Additionally, denuclearization should be a key feature of American foreign policy from here on out.
Lastly, regarding Russia, the NDS finally recognizes the cozy relationship that has been in development between Russia and China. Again, mostly pointing to the economic/energy situation, Russia is going to seek new partners and China is one of them.
4. China and Russia pose direct threats to the homeland
Not necessarily in boots-on-the-ground scenarios, the NDS lists China and Russia as threats to the homeland, but in more cyberwarfare-oriented ways. Think more major hacking events like SolarWinds.
I think the threats to the homeland section is far too brief and almost willfully ignorant. While yes it is in context to foreign policy-specific topics, I am disappointed in the lack of plans for the economy (as it pertains to business abroad) and the Southern border (which is criminally under-reported on).
Terrorism, as always, is still a major concern.
5. The US is wary of unhinged, rogue states
When we talk about Iran and North Korea, they fall under this category; states that totally reject American dominance and partnership, these are the states that are intimately aided by our adversaries with regards to nuclear weapons or terrorism. Like every Presidential administration before it, the Biden admin has no solution for these state actors.
Every day their capabilities grow, and their hatred for the West, our culture and ideology, and our allies (NATO, South Korea, Israel, etc.) never subsides.
6. The afterthoughts
I feel like the NDS also has to hit a checklist of sorts; that it needs a certain amount of concerns listed. Maybe they had a word count to meet. Anyways, there are certainly some afterthoughts…
The NDS also recognizes the threat to gray zone competition by our adversaries, climate change, pandemics, and the battle of technological superiority and product manufacturing.
That being said, there are no real solutions proposed for such things.
My conclusion is that we seem to be going in the right direction, at least in recognizing our biggest threats. One thing is for sure though, foreign policy needs to be a major topic of debate in the 2024 election.
The Biden administration has paled in comparison to the Trump administration when it comes to foreign policy. While allies didn’t always respect Trump, they at least worked with him. Biden on the other hand seems to be totally aimless and absent from the productions of the West and NATO.
This has not been a comprehensive review of the NDS, but you can read it here.
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